✍️ Caleb Williams Is Missing Out on $250M

Tyreek Hill just confirmed he has 10 kids in a recent interview. That includes four kids he’s had with four different women this year.

Financially, that doesn’t make much sense…

Unless he’s playing the long game and hoping one of these kids goes in the first round of the 2047 NFL Draft. In which case, he may be on to something…

Speaking of…

🗞 The Big Story: Is Hosting the Draft Worth it?

📉 Biggest Loser: The Biggest Draft Day Blunder

🏆 Winner’s Circle: Caleb Williams Is Missing Out on Over $250M

🗞 The Big Story

The NFL Draft is expected to have a $160M+ economic impact on Detroit, but could it actually be a bad deal for the city?

Let’s break it down.

Traveling Circus: Since 2015, the NFL has moved the location of the draft between cities that might not otherwise get a chance to host the Super Bowl because of factors like bad weather or lack of hotels.

Still, the economic impact of the Draft cannot be understated:

• 2015 & 2016: Chicago, $81 million

• 2017: Philadelphia, $95 million

• 2018: Dallas, $125 million

• 2019: Nashville, $224 million

• 2020: Virtual

• 2021: Cleveland, $42 million

• 2022: Las Vegas, $223 million

• 2023: Kansas City, $164 million

• 2024: Detroit, $161 million (projected)

The only problem is, those flashy numbers don’t tell the full story.

Cost of Doing Business: For starters, these massive figures combine the direct and indirect impact of the event, which can have varying effects on the local economy.

For example, a study may count a large hotel chain paying their accounting firm as an “indirect economic impact” of the event, even though very little of that money flows through the local economy.

As for the Draft in Detroit, Anderson Economic Group LLC was able to break out the event’s impact:

• Direct Impact: $97.7 million

• Indirect Impact: $63.4 million

The study also estimates how much fans will spend while in town (which primarily helps local businesses) as compared to what the NFL/City is investing into the event:

• Visitor Expenditures: $35.1 million

• Investment by NFL, Visit Detroit, and others: $62.4 million

But that’s not all, because, for each of the cities I mentioned earlier, they have had to spend millions in taxpayer dollars on:

• New Construction

• Police

• Clean-up Crews

And more to host the draft.

The Packers, who are set to host the draft next year, estimate that the event will cost upwards of $7.5M and they’re already demanding $2M from the state to help pick up the tab.

Different Story: Normally I’d end the story here to try and make the point that hosting these big NFL events isn’t worth it for taxpayers…

But for Detroit, the opposite may be true.

When the draft was held in Nashville, it attracted over 600,000 fans, of which 81% said they came specifically for the draft.

That might not sound like a big deal in a tourist city like Nashville, but for Detroit, even half of that number could go a long way in repairing the city’s image.

This year it’s estimated that over 250,000 people will visit Detroit for the draft, which is 15% of its total monthly visitors in just three days.

And these people are guaranteed to be downtown and spend money in the city on things like:

• Food

• Retail

• Transportation

So at the end of the day, I think taxpayers paying a few million dollars to help revive the image of their city is probably a worthwhile investment in the long run.

📉 Biggest Loser

One of the biggest mistakes in draft history led to a team falling off so badly, that even Bo Jackson and Steve Young couldn’t save them.

Trending Up: Ahead of the 1982 NFL Draft, the newly formed Tampa Bay Buccaneers had just won their second division title in three years.

This was especially impressive given the team had lost its first 26 games after being created in 1976, but now the future of the franchise was looking bright.

They had a promising young quarterback in Doug Williams, several All-Pros on defense, and held the 17th pick in the upcoming draft.

However, come draft day, and needing help on both the offensive and defensive line, the Buccaneers were still between two players:

• DE Booker Reese (Bethune-Cookman)

• OG Sean Farrell (Penn State)

Draft-Day Logistics: In the ‘80s, the entire front office of a team would gather in a meeting room at their facility around a speaker phone and send a low-level employee to New York City to write down and hand in each selection.

In 1982, it was the Buccaneers’ equipment manager, Pat Marcuccilo, who was sent to the draft and his job was simple:

Write down the name of the player the front office wanted to select and hand it in to be read on stage.

However, with the Bucs on the clock, Pat was told to write down the names of both Farrell and Reese as the team was still deciding which player to select.

The Turning Point: This next part is really important because it’s where everything goes wrong:

According to the Bucs’ front office, they told Pat “We’re not going with Sean Farrell, we’re going with Booker Reese. Turn it in.”

However, in New York, the Bucs’ time on the clock was running out and Giants’ fans (whose team held the very next pick) began chanting and stomping their feet loudly.

This meant Pat had trouble hearing what was being said over speakerphone, and with just two minutes left he heard someone say “Pat… write down Sean Farrell, guard, Penn State…Turn it in. Turn it in.”

Pat claims he never even heard the name, Booker Reese, he just heard “Sean Farrell” and “Turn it in” and that’s what he did.

Doubling Down: After realizing his mistake, Pat was sure he was going to be fired but at the end of the day the Bucs still got a pretty good player with their 17th pick.

Their real mistake came when they traded next year’s first-round pick to move back into the first round and select Booker Reese.

And things only got worse from there…

Historic Skid: Not only was Reese a total bust, but Doug Williams left for the USFL before the ‘82-’83 season.

This caused the Bucs to trade another first-round pick in the 1984 draft for the Bengals back-up QB, who led the team to a disappointing 2-14 record.

Luckily, Tampa Bay managed to find QB Steve Young in the 1984 Supplemental Draft but the team was so bad that Young only won three games in two seasons before being traded to the 49ers.

Then in 1986, the team used their first overall pick to select running back, Bo Jackson but after Jackson had dinner with a handful of Bucs players he chose to play baseball instead, never taking a snap for the team.

And the next year, in 1987, the team used another first overall pick to draft QB Vinny Testaverde who they got rid of three years later.

This meant that from the one draft mistake in 1982 until 1996 the team had 14 consecutive losing seasons…

I hope Pat didn’t take it too personally.

🏆 Winner’s Circle

Caleb Williams is going to miss out on over $250M in this year’s draft and it’s all because of Sam Bradford.

Back in My Day: Before 2011, NFL rookies and their agents were responsible for negotiating their rookie contracts with the teams that drafted them.

This meant that rookies would look at previous year’s drafts to determine how much they should be paid, and naturally, everyone wanted to get paid more than the group before them.

And nowhere was this more true than with the first overall picks.

Pre-Rookie Wage Scale #1 Overall NFL Rookie Contracts (via X/Spotrac):

• 2005: Alex Smith: 6 yrs, $49.5M

• 2006: Mario Williams: 6 yrs, $54M

• 2007: JaMarcus Russell: 6 yrs, $61M

• 2008: Jake Long: 5 yrs, $57M

• 2009: Matthew Stafford: 6 yrs, $72M

• 2010: Sam Bradford: 6 yrs, $78M

This meant Bradford was taking up over 10% of the Rams salary cap before ever taking a snap, and naturally the league (specifically owners and veteran players) didn’t like the way things were trending.

Hard Stop: Owners didn’t like that they were now expected to shell out huge amounts of money for players that had the chance to completely bust.

Meanwhile, veteran players didn’t like that rookies were taking up so much of the salary cap, causing them to get paid less.

So, in 2011 (as a part of the new CBA) the NFL introduced the Rookie Wage Scale. The way it works is instead of every rookie negotiating their own contract, the league predetermines how much each pick in each round will make.

And in 2011, the first draft where the Rookie Wage Scale was in effect, first overall pick Cam Newton only got a 4-year, $22 million deal, a fourth of what Sam Bradford signed for the year prior.

What If: Every year, the total value of rookie contracts increases slightly (1-3%), with this year’s first overall pick projected to make $38.5 million across four years.

But what if Caleb Williams was able to negotiate his own contract just like Sam Bradford had? What would he have made on his rookie deal?

In the six years leading up to the change, number-one overall picks averaged almost 10% more in total contract value than the year before.

And if that trend had held, then Williams would have likely been able to sign for:

• 6 yrs

• $296M

• ~$49M per year

That would make him the fifth highest-paid QB in the league this year (by average annual contract value):

1. Burrow ($55M)

2. Herbert ($52.5M)

3. Jackson ($52M)

4. Hurts ($51M)

5. Williams (~$49M)

6. Murray ($46.1M)

7. Watson ($46M)

8. Mahomes ($45M)

9. Cousins ($45M)

10. Allen ($43M)

But instead, he’ll have to be ok with $9.6M per year for the next four years while the Bears try to not screw him up.

⏱ In Other News

• Loyalty pays (at least in golf).

• March Madness isn’t expanding (for a while).

• The Far-Right Has Their Eyes on Bare Knuckle Boxing.

🎁 Share the Bottom of the Ninth

When you refer new readers to the Bottom of the Ninth, you win exclusive prizes.

➡️ Here is your unique link to share: https://bottom-of-the-ninth.beehiiv.com/subscribe?ref=PLACEHOLDER

You’re currently at 0. That’s only 1 away from receiving a Bottom of the Ninth Sticker!

*Please do not use fake email addresses — they will not qualify as referrals. Thank you!

👋 I wish I had a better update for you as it pertains to the high school baseball team I’m coaching, but I do not.

We dropped two games this weekend by a combined score of 28-1 (ouch). We then arrived for a game against an extremely beatable team only for it to rain for 10 minutes.

It wouldn’t have been a big deal, except the opposing team didn’t place a tarp over any part of the field during the brief downpour, so the game was postponed.

We did, however, have a nice showing against a conference opponent where we led for 5 innings, only to fall short in the 7th and lose 8-5.

None of that matters, however, because we play at Target Field this week (home of the Minnesota Twins)!!!!

Then I’m off to DC to cover some Collegiate Rugby while our team plays a winnable game on Saturday. Here’s to hoping!