👟 Nike is About to Make a Massive Mistake, and it Could Earn Them $100M+

In partnership with

Hello (again). Many of you may have noticed an unexpected Wednesday edition of this newsletter hit your inboxes earlier this week.

But this was no accident. It’s a new podcast and newsletter series I’m launching to dive deeper into sports business trends and stories that I think deserve more airtime.

This week, I talked with Connor Renton, founder of the world’s largest rec basketball league, to find out how he’s dominating a $5.57 billion industry.

Here’s what you can expect:

→ Our Full Conversation (~1 hour listen)

→ My 5 Key Takeaways (~5 minute read)

Now, back to your regular scheduled programming!

🗞 The Big Story: Nike is About to Make a Massive Mistake, And it Could Earn Them $100M+

📉 Biggest Loser: College Football Just Changed Forever, Here’s What You Missed

🏆 Winner’s Circle: The High-Tech Secret Behind the PGA’s Little White Flags

Get access to the most exclusive offers for private market investors

Looking to invest in real estate, private credit, pre-IPO venture or crypto? AIR Insiders get exclusive offers and perks from leading private market investing tools and platforms, like:

• Up to $250 free from Percent

• 50% off tax and retirement planning from Carry

• $50 of free stock from Public

• A free subscription to Worth Magazine

• $1000 off an annual subscription to DealSheet

• and offers from CapitalPad, Groundfloor, Fundrise, Mogul, and more.

Just sign up for our 2-week free trial to experience all the benefits of being an AIR Insider.

Sign Up For Free

🗞 The Big Story

Nike might be making a massive mistake with Caitlin Clark’s new shoe, but they could make $100 million because of it.

Clark’s Deal With Nike: When Caitlin Clark signed her record-breaking 8-year, $28 million deal with Nike, it included a guarantee that she would become just the fifth active WNBA player to get a signature shoe.

• 2022 - Puma Stewie (Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty)

• 2023 - Nike Sabrina (Sabrina Ionescu, New York Liberty)

• 2025 - Nike A’One (A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces)

• 2025 - Holo Footwear JS01 (Jacy Sheldon, Dallas Wings)

• Est. 2026 - Nike Clark (Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever)

And even though that shoe isn’t expected to be announced until 2026, when Nike launched an Indiana Fever colorway of the Kobe V Pronto in June, they sold out in minutes at $190 each, and quickly started popping up on the resale market for as high as $375.

And if Sabrina Ionescu’s signature shoe is any indication, becoming the second most-worn model in the entire NBA last year, then it’s not crazy to expect a Caitlin Clark signature shoe to sell even better, with one sneaker insider already predicting that it could be a “$100 million business.”

But what if I told you that that would be a massive mistake for Nike?

Unisex, Not Women’s: Currently, every WNBA signature shoe is technically a men’s model that is just marketed for women, and even though this “unisex” design allows for players across the NBA to wear them, for years doctors have pointed to the fact that wearing shoes designed for men could be part of the reason that women’s basketball players suffer injuries at almost twice the rate of their male counterparts, which includes being at a 3-8x greater risk of tearing their ACL.

This is because a woman’s foot is more triangular and tends to have a higher arch, resulting in most basketball shoes not providing proper fit or support.

Some designers even believe that designing a basketball shoe with an alternative shape and lighter construction could be of benefit to certain men as well.

But what does this all have to do with Caitlin Clark?

Nike’s Opportunity: It’s clear that if Nike ever wanted to break the mold and design a shoe specifically for women, Clark would be the perfect person to do that with. She’s already reportedly responsible for 26.5% of all WNBA economic activity, and would likely recoup Nike’s $28 million investment just by selling shoes to women and girls alone.

Still, some experts are worried that the promise of making hundreds of millions of dollars by making another “unisex” shoe could be too enticing for Nike.

And for a company whose stock continues to decline $NKE ( ▲ 2.89% ) , I’m not holding my breath.

📉 Biggest Loser

The biggest story in college sports right now is one you probably didn’t hear about, but it could have massive consequences for your favorite team.

Background: It’s no secret that being in one of the major conferences has always provided college football teams with a massive advantage. But after agreeing to a new College Football Playoff TV deal with ESPN last year, teams in the Power Four now collectively earn 91% of the $1.3 billion annual distribution, with teams in the Group of Five being forced to split the remaining 9%.

And that’s not even the worst part.

College Expansion Fees: Historically, college sports have been one of the last places where programs have joined conferences as “expansion teams” without paying an “expansion fee,” but this now seems to be changing.

And thanks to Memphis, it looks like the new price to join one of the Power Four conferences just got set.

Recently, when teams like SMU, Cal, or Stanford joined a major conference like the ACC, they had to give up some or all of their rights to conference media revenue for 7-10 years. Still, the act of actually joining the conference technically remained “free,” except for a few varying onboarding costs.

Conference Buy-In: However, that might have all just changed after presidents in the Big 12 denied Memphis entry to their league, even after the school agreed to:

• Forgo conference media distributions until 2031 ($31 million/year)

• Deliver $200 million in sponsorship revenue directly to the conference

As one Big 12 source told the Sports Business Journal, it seems like “expansion fees will be the new norm in future realignment within the Power Four.” But it’s clear that they’ll cost more than $200 million.

Because while most industry experts point to the early 2030s when we might see another massive shake-up in college sports, there’s no guarantee that top conferences will even want to add more teams in the near future.

At least now they know that if they do, teams are willing to pay hundreds of millions of dollars for it.

🏆 Winner’s Circle

This is the most high-tech flag ever created, but not for the reason you might think.

Real-Time Data: If you’ve ever watched golf on TV, you’ve probably noticed how every shot has live, up-to-the-minute data about everything from how far a golfer is from the hole to the percentage chance that they’ll make a given putt. This data is even displayed throughout the actual course for fans in attendance and updated within seconds of a golfer hitting their shot.

But how is this even possible?

Well, that’s the question I had last weekend during the 3M Open when Adam Scott hit his drive right in front of me into the rough on the 6th hole.

Now, the rough at TPC Twin Cities was pretty long, so one of the two volunteers on the hole placed a white flag next to Adam’s ball to help him locate it. But that’s when I noticed that each one of these flags had the same logo on them for something called “ShotLink.”

So I asked the volunteer what the purpose of the flags was, and what I learned genuinely blew my mind.

ShotLink: Before a tournament even starts, the PGA will lay down between 15-25 miles of fiber optic cables beneath the ground that connect to three cameras per hole. These cameras actually become pretty obvious once you start looking for them, since they sit 24-30 feet above the ground, and each one can track 8 different attributes per shot, including: 

• Spin rate

• Speed

• Distance

Then, within 30 seconds, fans on the course and watching the broadcast can see the data collected.

But that’s not even the most interesting part.

Because even though hundreds of people oversee this system during a given event, most of the data is actually collected and sent out completely autonomously — that is, unless a ball ends up in the rough.

White Flag System: Because as I witnessed first-hand, this rough is often so long that the cameras can’t accurately pick up where the ball landed, which is why each PGA event utilizes two volunteers per hole to place these white flags next to where the ball landed.

That way, the ShotLink cameras can pick up the ball’s exact location so they can accurately relay the information back to the fans and the broadcast.

Talk about a low-tech solution to a high-tech problem.

🎧 For Your Commute

🎁 Share the Bottom of the Ninth

When you refer new readers to the Bottom of the Ninth, you win exclusive prizes.

➡️ Here is your unique link to share: https://bottom-of-the-ninth.beehiiv.com/subscribe?ref=PLACEHOLDER

You’re currently at 0. That’s only 1 away from receiving a Bottom of the Ninth Sticker!

*Please do not use fake email addresses — they will not qualify as referrals. Thank you!

👋🏻 Happy Friday!

If you haven’t already, I’d love it if you checked out my newest newsletter series. I’d love to hear your thoughts on it - the format is new for me!